Equities lost some luster after the Fed pulled the rug out from under investors last week.
The market was side-swiped by the surprise Fed announcement last week. While rates were cut by 25 basis points (as expected), rate cut projections for 2025 were sliced in half. Just 3 short months ago, equities cheered as the Fed forecasted four rate cuts next year. On Wednesday, the Fed shifted gears and forecasted only two rate cuts in 2025. Equities sold off more than 2% after the Fed’s announcement. In addition, the Fed raised its 2025 projection of inflation from 2.1% back in September to 2.5% as of last Wednesday.
Meanwhile, investors continue to pour money into equities.
Investors currently have record high allocations to U.S. equities, while at the same time, allocations to cash are the lowest on record. Volatility spiked last week in response to the new revelations from the Fed meeting. The VIX Index is now trading higher than both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, potentially indicating volatility may be sticking around for the foreseeable future. One would expect trading volumes to be lower this week, as is typical during the Christmas holiday week. However, the “Santa Clause” rally could be in jeopardy post-Fed meeting. Investors should stay focused on sound financial planning and risk-management instead of chasing already over-priced equities in this environment.
Disclosures
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.
Forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
Any market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
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