Markets were higher last week as the holiday-shortened trading didn't seem to affect investors' appetite for risk.
And yet, concentration at the top of the broad indices is pushing returns higher for the traditional benchmarks, while diversified portfolios lag behind. The good news is that the Fear & Greed Index shows that investors are not all that thrilled with markets. While markets are making all-time-highs, the index is shifting back and forth between Fear and Neutral. Historically, when the S&P 500 Index is up more than 10% the first half of the year, the second half is positive 82% of the time, with an average return of 7%. That doesn't mean a correction is out of the question, however, and would be completely normal.
The inflation numbers are due this week, and the forecast is for a 3rd consecutive month of declines in the CPI on a year-over-year basis.
This would likely cause Fed futures to spike for a rate cut in September. Declining inflation and a drop in interest rates would be a tailwind to consumers who are stretched. The lower-end consumer has definitely been feeling the pinch from higher inflation and stubborn interest rates, as checking and savings have largely been depleted for that demographic. Chairman Powell will testify before the Joint Economic Committee on Tuesday & Wednesday at which time he could give markets a stronger hint on the Fed's September meeting outcome. The focus this week will definitely be on parsing the Fed's words in light of the inflationary data.
Disclosures
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.
Forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
Any market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
Past Performance does not guarantee future results.
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